Will the 2021 Olympics Happen?
by Savannah Cress
I don’t know about you, and I’m not sure how I feel about it, but some of these changes that seemed so weird at the onset of COVID-19 are almost starting to feel “normal.” I’m kind of getting used to the big outing of the week consisting of the grocery store, and consequently of filling my gas tank once every other month rather than once a week. I barely notice the “Wait Here” dots spaced 6 feet apart at the check-out counter anymore, or the harsh “WRONG WAY” signs in the aisles that I somehow manage to end up facing far more often than I should given my ability to read and the 50-50 odds of turning down an aisle in the wrong direction to begin with. And while I’m still not entirely used to wearing or seeing them, masks are the new fuzzy dice, adorning rear-view mirrors of cars everywhere. Similarly, the initial shock-factor of the Olympics being moved to next summer has worn off, leaving the chaos of the actual rescheduling to the International Olympic Committee and Japan.
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In May we looked at some of what has to happen behind the scenes to postpone this massive event. When the initial decision to move the 2020 Olympics to July of 2021 was announced, it was stated that the event would not be canceled and would happen by summer of 2021 at the latest. The path that coronavirus has taken since that announcement has been neither straight nor narrow, and certainty of it no longer being a threat next summer is dwindling. Japanese professor of infectious disease, Kentaro Iwata, stated “To be honest with you, I don’t think the Olympics is likely to be held next year. Holding the Olympics needs two conditions; one, controlling COVID-19 in Japan, and controlling COVID-19 everywhere.” [2] While this statement earned Iwata a label of “pessimist” in headlines everywhere, he has a valid point: controlling this disease is proving to be a challenge. [2]
The number of new cases each day in the United States is slightly lower than it was a month ago, but as many states have lifted stay-at-home orders and slowly re-opened businesses over the past month, the number of people out and about has noticeably grown. As of Saturday, 22 states, many of which had previously been on a downward trajectory, are now showing a rise in the number of new coronavirus cases per day. Dr. Angela Dunn, a Utah state epidemiologist noted that “the timing directly correlates with our loosening up restrictions.” [6]
Seeing the presumed light at the end of the tunnel, South Korea began to open schools again in May, only to reclose hundreds of them by the end of the month as the country saw a spike in new coronavirus cases. Parts of Africa have seen an unsettling rise in the number of cases as well. When COVID-19 was first found in Africa, it was over 3 months before the number of cases reached 100,000. Recently however, the number has doubled, jumping from 100,000 to 200,000 in just 18 days. Another area with an alarming spike in the number of cases is the Middle East. Over half of the new cases in the region are concentrated in Pakistan, Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia. The Eastern Mediterranean Region now holds almost 10% of the world’s total coronavirus cases. [7] [8] [9]
Even just looking at those 4 areas of the world, it’s easy to see why rumors of the Olympics in Tokyo being canceled have gotten started. With all the uncertainty, the IOC is considering different options. There is talk of drastically restructuring the games, narrowing the event down to “the essentials.” According to Toshiro Muto, chief executive of the local Tokyo Olympic organizing committee, cancellation is not on the table at this point, but the games may not look much like the Olympics we are used to. [1] [2] [3] [6]
In an interview with BBC, Thomas Bach, the president of the IOC, echoes Muto’s expression of the 2020 (2021) Olympics looking very different from traditional Olympics. The Olympic staff and committee are facing many challenges as they attempt to plan the largest sports event in the world in the midst of a global pandemic. “It is a mammoth task,” he stated. “We have to reinvent the wheel day-by-day with everything we are doing.” While he does not disclose specifics, Bach mentions the possibility of facilities in the Olympic Village to quarantine athletes and other participants as a start. There is also talk of holding the Olympics without any fans present, though Bach suggests holding the Games behind closed doors goes against the Olympic spirit of uniting people from all over the world in the huge stadium. [4] [5]
Another question to consider has to do with the athletes themselves. Should athletes train as if there will be an Olympics? Will pre-Olympic meets, such as NCAA’s and US Nationals, be able to go off as planned? Will this virus mean the end of careers of older athletes, like Justin Gatlin, who said the 2020 Olympics would be his last, and is sticking around in 2021 specifically for the opportunity to make one more Olympic team? How will possible cancellation affect the careers of athletes in their prime—someone like Keni Harrison for example—who owns the 100mh world record but failed to make the 2016 Olympic team, and was looking forward to 2020/21 as a chance to redeem herself on the world’s biggest stage? Will we get a chance to see men’s 400 hurdler’s Karsten Warholm, Rai Benjamin, and Abderrahman Samba go at it again like they did at the 2019 world championships? What about the financial ramifications for athletes? Olympic medals often serve as a springboard for endorsement opportunities. What about younger athletes who have are ready to blow up but may not have an Olympic stage on which to do so? Someone like Noah Lyles, for example? For the athletes, we can all agree that a stripped down Olympics would be better than no Olympics at all. But no one wants to catch that virus either, so the fear is real.
While we may have to wait until at least after the IOC’s July 17 virtual meeting to hear any more detail on some of the changes planned for the Tokyo Games, it seems likely that specifics will be up in the air for much longer still as coronavirus continues it’s uncooperative path. I feel the same about things being “up in the air” as I do about virtual school – both involve a very strong antipathy. I have a feeling the IOC can relate. But hey, I’ll take making it work with 2 kids over 11,000 athletes any day. [10] [11]
Sources
[1]https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/tokyo-2020-olympics-postponed-over-coronavirus-concerns-n1165046
[3]https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/22/sports/olympics/coronavirus-tokyo-olympics.html
[4]https://www.runnersworld.com/news/a32627766/tokyo-olympic-games-2021-coronavirus/
[5]https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797
[6]https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/14/us/coronavirus-united-states.html
[8]https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/06/covid-19-activity-escalating-africa-middle-east
[11]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Summer_Olympics
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