The Golden Age of the 400 Hurdles
by Steve McGill
In last month’s issue, I talked about how we were entering a golden age in both 400m hurdle events. Now that the Olympic Games have come and gone, we can say without a doubt that we have entered that age and that it will most likely last for a good while. The final of both races was mind-blowing, exceeding even the highest of expectations. Let’s start with an analysis of the men’s race.
[am4show not_have=’g5;’]
[/am4show][am4guest]
[/am4guest][am4show have=’g5;’]
The Olympic final was that rare race that changed the way we look at the event from an athlete’s perspective, from a coaching perspective, and from an historical perspective. If you’re an athlete–a Kenny Selmon for example–you realize that running 48-low isn’t worth squat; you have to be in the 47’s, and the low 47’s at that, to even be in the mix for a medal. If you’re a coach, you’re realizing that open 400 speed in the 44-low range and excellent hurdling technique are requirements for excellence. From an historical perspective, it can now safely be said that all conversations about the men’s 400 hurdles begin and end with Karsten Warholm. No longer can it be said unequivocally that Edwin Moses is the greatest 400 meter hurdler who ever lived. His personal best of 47.02 would’ve earned him a 4th-place finish in Tokyo, more than a full second behind Warholm’s winning time of 45.94, almost a full second behind Rai Benjamin’s 46.17, and well behind bronze medalist dos Santos’ 46.72. Think about it, dos Santos’ time was faster than the 46.78 world record that Kevin Young ran in 1992, and that lasted until earlier this year. With McMaster fourth in 47.08 and Samba fifth in 47.12, we can all agree beyond the shadow of a doubt that this was the greatest 400h race of all time. At least for now.
All the top five finishers in this race are young enough that they’ll be around for another Olympic cycle, and quite possibly beyond. Due to the 2020 Games being pushed back to 2021, the 2021 World Championships have been pushed back to 2022. Which means we’ll have a World Championships next year, another in 2023, and then another Olympics in 2024. Who knows what the world record will be by then? Who’s to say how far and how fast these athletes will push each other? If you had asked me a month ago how long it would be before we would see a sub-46 in the 400 hurdles, I would’ve said maybe sometime before Warholm and Benjamin retire. But an honest answer would’ve been that this generation of athletes would take us under 46.50, and that it could be decades before we see anyone go under 46. But now we can say that it has already happened, and there’s no reason to believe that a 45.50 or faster is possible. Never thought I’d ever say that.
Regarding the race itself, I always like to look at stride patterns and conjecture what conclusions we can draw from them. Warholm went 13 strides through hurdle nine and then went 15 to hurdle ten, whereas Benjamin went 13 all the way. So much for the notion that 13 all the way is the gold standard. Warholm’s 15 strides to hurdle ten looked to be a conscious decision. He quickened his steps and had a great take-off distance that allowed him to sprint off the hurdle and toward the finish line. Benjamin’s 13 was effective too, but he was running against a man possessed.
What I love about Warholm is that he goes out in the 400 hurdles like he was running a 50 meter dash. No holding back. No conserving energy. Go for it from the gun. His style puts tremendous pressure on his opponents. Hurdlers who do want to conserve energy early on, who do want to wait until the last 150 to go for broke, can’t afford to wait that long. They have to go with him. He made up the stagger on McMaster by the second hurdle, and McMaster was flying. Benjamin, meanwhile, was visibly upset in his post-race interview, feeling like he had let people down. Bruh, you didn’t let anybody down. You ran 46.17. Here’s the deal with Benjamin though: he needs to do like Kevin Young and 12-step the hurdles on the backstretch. His 13 on the backstretch looks crowded. It was noticeable at the Trials, and it was even more noticeable here, as he tried to stay within striking distance of Warholm. At the Trials, Benjamin did run a relaxed first half of the race, and really didn’t turn on the jets until after he landed off hurdle six. He ran 46.83 doing that. But at the Games, he found out that that strategy doesn’t work against someone as talented and as fearless as Warholm. In the attempt to stay with Warholm, he overstrided a couple hurdles and had to chop his stride right in front of them. If he were to work on 12-stepping and incorporate that into his stride pattern, he’ll be sub-46 as well. The rivalry between these two hurdle monsters is far from over. And dos Passos is younger than both of them, so who knows if he’ll surpass both of them at some point? The immediate future is bright for this event, no doubt.
Above is video of the men’s final. Click on “watch on YouTube” to watch.
Sydney McLaughlin, as I mentioned in last month’s issue, has already made the adjustment in her stride pattern for the first part of the race. She was taking 15 strides between the hurdles in 2019, but after switching coaches to train with Bobby Kersee, she is now taking 14 strides in the first part of the race. At the Trials, she went 14 through hurdle five, and then 15 for hurdles six through ten. In the finals at the Games, she went 14 through hurdle seven, 15 to hurdle eight, 16 to hurdle nine, and then back to 15 over hurdle ten. Here’s what I think: She didn’t intend to go 14 strides through hurdle seven; she intended to follow the same stride pattern that she used at the Trials. But she was amped up, and she knew Dalilah Muhammad would be faster than she’d been a month ago, and she also knew that the undefeated Femke Bol was in the race, so she ended up taking 14 strides for longer than she had intended. That’s what led to the 16-step to hurdle nine; she was off her rhythm a little bit, as she wanted to take 15 there. Then, the athlete and competitor in her kicked in, and she got back on the 15-step for the last hurdle.
Muhammad, meanwhile, did her usual: 15 through hurdle eight and 16 over hurdles nine and ten. Take note: Dalilah was ahead coming off the last hurdle. Despite taking a total of eight more strides than Sydney up to that point, she was ahead off the last hurdle. Sydney used the run-in to make up the ground and pass Dalilah. So, two things here are equally true: 1) Sydney going 14 for much of the race has proven to be a difference-maker for her. 2) Dalilah sticking with the 15 through eight and 16 over the last two is equally effective for her. In my opinion, this race went to the faster quarter-miler, as they are both equally proficient hurdlers. And we can’t leave Bol out of this conversation, as she set a national record and broke the world record from before this year started. She goes 15 all the way around. There is no doubt that she will be battling for supremacy in this event for the next ten years or so.
Where does the event go from here? Well, I’d say it’s a matter of time before we see a sub-51.00 race. I’ll go ahead and predict that it will happen next year. McLaughlin, Muhammad, and Bol are equivalent to Warholm, Benjamin, and dos Passos in the men’s race. As long as they’re competing against each other, they will continue to run faster as they attempt to defeat each other. McLaughlin is the one who impresses me the most; she seems to be so gifted athletically and so poised emotionally that there’s no telling how fast she might end up running. Once she settles in on a stride pattern that she does consistently like Muhammad has done, that will be when she can run instinctively and just focus on her speed and speed-endurance.
Above is video of the women’s race.
[/am4show]
