Should Femke Bol 14-Step?
by Steve McGill
Femke Bol of Norway has been one of the top three 400 meter hurdlers in the world over the past three years; she has been dominant in many races, demolishing the competition in some cases. Her times have been among the best the world has ever seen, and at this point it would be safe to say that she has surpassed Dalilah Muhammad as the second best in the world. Still in her early 20’s, it seems quite obvious that, barring injury, she will have one of the greatest careers ever in the history of the event. Shoot, if she were to never run another race, it could be argued that she has already had one of the greatest careers in the history of the event.
[am4show not_have=’g5;’]
[/am4show][am4guest]
[/am4guest][am4show have=’g5;’]
But the problem she faces can be summed up in two words: Sydney McLaughlin. I would definitely argue that if McLaughlin were to never run another race, she can already be considered the greatest athlete the event has ever known. When I think of McLaughlin constantly setting new standards of excellence in the event, I’m reminded of Renaldo Nehemiah single-handedly taking the men’s 110 world record down from 13.21 to 12.93. Or Edwin Moses taking the men’s 400h world record down to 47.02 while defeating all opponents for ten years straight. Or Karsten Warholm running sub-46 in the 400h decades before anybody thought it would happen. McLaughlin is a monster. Poised, centered, confident, locked in, and extraordinarily gifted. I remember watching Magic Johnson play in the NBA in the 1980’s, and every year he added something new to his game even though he was already a force of nature the instant he stepped on an NBA court. McLaughlin is like that. A phenom in high school who made an Olympic team prior to ever stepping foot on a college campus, she has continued to not only run faster every year, but to make adjustments to her stride pattern every year.
As a result, a convincing argument could be made that if Bol wants to ever be a World Champion or Olympic Champion, she’ll have to make adjustments to her stride pattern too. But a convincing argument could also be made that trying to 14-stride for part of the race could backfire. Let’s take a look at both sides of the argument.
Back in 2019, Sydney was executing a rather traditional stride pattern for elite long hurdlers — 15 strides through hurdle seven, then 16 strides (alternating lead legs) the rest of the way. By 2021, after the 2020 season was pretty much wiped out due to the Coronavirus pandemic, she was taking 14 strides for the first five hurdles, and 15 strides over the last five. And she was breaking national records and world records and Olympic records along the way. This change in stride pattern was a dramatic change. From not 14-stepping at all to 14-stepping half the race created separation from her elite competitors Dalilah and Femke. Dalilah, meanwhile, stuck with her race strategy of taking 15 through eight hurdles and -6 over the last two. And Femke was going 15 the whole way.
Last year, at the 2022 World Championships, Sydney changed the flavor again, taking 14 strides through seven hurdles before dropping down to -5 for the last three. And we all saw the results. So it wouldn’t be much of a stretch to predict that Sydney might be 14-stepping the whole race at some point, perhaps as soon as next year. Nor would it be much of a stretch that she has a sub-50 race in her, and that it could happen sooner than later. So, from that perspective, if you’re Femke Bol, what choice do you have but to add some 14-stepping into your stride pattern?
But it’s not that simple. For one reason, Sydney’s ability to alternate is on another level. She is equally proficient leading with either leg, to the point where you can’t distinguish which leg is the dominant leg. She got to this point by racing 100m hurdle races, leading with the left leg one race, and with the right leg the next race. Most hurdlers have a preferred lead leg, and when they lead with the other leg it’s obvious that it’s not as smooth or efficient. While I have no doubt that Femke has the necessary work ethic, we can’t underestimate how hard it is to get the weaker leg to where it’s as effective as the dominant leg. I don’t think it can be done in one season without taking time away from other elements of training. But I could be wrong. The women’s hurdles are only 30 inches and these women have some long legs. But still, it’s a daunting task.
Another thing to consider is whether 14-stepping part of the way will make Femke faster. Taking less strides doesn’t always work for everybody the way it has worked for Sydney. On the men’s side of the event, I always point to Bershawn Jackson in the early 2000’s and Mike Shine in the 1970’s both of whom 15-stepped the whole way. Jackson ran a personal best of 47.30 15-stepping while running against a bunch of 13-steppers. Shine won the 1976 Olympic silver medal behind Moses in the era when 13-stepping was beginning to become the norm. Those two guys are exceptions, but they’re notable exceptions. From a fatigue perspective, the question we must ask is will 14-stepping early in the race lead Bol to 16-stepping at the end of the race? The 400 hurdles is all about energy distribution. If she puts too much energy into the first part of the race to get the 14-stride pattern going, will she pay for it later? In Sydney’s case that hasn’t happened, but again, Sydney is such a phenomenon that we can’t assume that anyone else, even Bol, can do what Sydney can do. So, you could definitely argue that Bol should stick with the 15-all-the-way approach and focus on increasing her turnover.
But if you’re asking my opinion, then I’d state that Bol has no choice. Sydney is simply too good to go with the same old same old and think you might have a chance to beat her. It’s like the NBA around 2015-16, when Steph Curry and Klay Thompson were raining three-point bombs from all over the court. Playing against a team with dudes who could shoot like that, other teams had to improve their three-point shooting and increase the amount of three-point shots they took just to have a chance to compete. It’s the same thing here. If Bol wants to have a chance to actually beat McLaughlin, and not just come close, she has to incorporate 14-stepping into her race plan, even if it’s awkward at first.
[/am4show]
