Men’s 400m Hurdle Wars Continue
by Steve McGill
Just when you thought it was safe to go outside, here come Alison Dos Santos, Karsten Warholm, and Rai Benjamin bringing more ruckus to the men’s 400 meter hurdles, in a big way. Usually, professional track athletes take a while to ramp up to peak condition. Opening races will be significantly slower than the times they’ll run at major competitions. With this year being an Olympic year, such ramp-up is to be expected, and it is what we have seen in many events. But not in this event. Dos Santos, Warholm, and Benjamin have all run well under 47.00, rewriting the all-time list of fastest times every time they step on the track. And that happened before we even reached the month of June. The Olympic Games are two months away, and these three gentlemen are running so fast that it’s not far-fetched to believe, barring injury, that all three may go under 46.00 in Paris. In this article, I want to take a look not only at what they’re doing, but how they’re doing it.
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With the 400 hurdles, the main thing to always look for is stride pattern. That’s where you can get an indication of who might have an advantage over their competitors. But you can’t just look at the numbers; you also have to look at the rhythm and fluidity of the race. Who is looking the smoothest between the hurdles? Who has the most momentum coming off the last hurdle? These things matter too, so we can’t just assume that the hurdler taking the least number of strides will always win.
There are two races I want to focus on in this article. The first is the one in which Warholm and Dos Santos went head to head in Warholm’s home country of Norway a few weeks ago. It was Warholm’s opener, and Dos Santos’ second race of the year, after opening with a world-leading 46.86 two weeks prior. In that race, Dos Santos demolished the field, with the second-place finisher coming in at 48.39 – a very respectful and even highly impressive time so early in the season in a normal universe, but not in this new one where Dos Santos, Warholm and Benjamin dwell. A week later, Benjamin responded with a monstrous 46.64 at Drake Stadium, taking over the world lead and letting everybody know that Dos Santos’ 46.86 didn’t faze him in the least.
But let’s get down to it. The Warholm vs. Dos Santos battle in Norway, where, in an electrifying race, Dos Santos reclaimed the world lead with a 46.63, edging Warholm by a mere .07. Warholm did his usual thing – going out early like a madman, establishing an early lead. (I can only imagine how intimidating it would be to race against that dude). But Dos Santos was right there with him, touching down off the early hurdles just a smidge after Warholm. Warholm maintained a lead by the slightest of margins all the way through hurdle ten. Dos Santos passed him off the hurdle, as he had just a little bit more momentum going into the hurdle, and he long-strided his way to the victory in the last 35 meters.
Speaking of long-striding, here was Dos Santos’ stride pattern (based on what I can see from the replays of the video): 19 strides to the first hurdle, 13 strides to the second hurdle, 12 strides to hurdles three, four, five, and six, and 13 strides to hurdles seven, eight, nine and ten.
Warholm, meanwhile, went 20 strides to the first hurdle, 13 strides to hurdles two through eight, then 14 strides over hurdles nine and ten. So, Warholm took a total of seven more strides between the hurdles than Dos Santos, but they finished in almost exactly the same time. That’s evidence that the stride pattern that works best for the individual is what the individual should go with. But even with that being said, let’s stop for a moment and acknowledge how astonishing Dos Santos’ stride pattern is. The only other hurdler I know to have 12-stepped is Kevin Young, who 12-stepped hurdles three and four on the backstretch in his iconic 46.78 1992 Olympic final, which stood as the world record for decades before Warholm tore it to ribbons in 2021. Now, 46.78 isn’t even a top-ten time anymore. But getting back to the point, Dos Santos 12-stepped four hurdles. And the sixth hurdle is on the curve! I know it helps to be 6-7, but still, 12-stepping four hurdles is so astounding that he should win some type of award for that alone. And 19-stepping to the first hurdle – I don’t think anyone has done that before either. I could be wrong, but I don’t think so.
In Benjamin’s race, he stuck to the Edwin Moses stride pattern model: 20 strides to the first hurdle, then 13 strides the rest of the way.
It’s also worth noting which leg is the dominant lead leg for each hurdler. Both Warholm and Dos Santos are left leg dominant, while Benjamin is right leg dominant. The reason that could matter when the time comes for all three to meet is that Benjamin could be at a slight disadvantage leading with his right leg on the second curve. By 12-stepping four times before 13-stepping hurdle seven, Dos Santos sets it up that he is leading with the left leg for the whole curve. And Warholm, obviously, is leading with his left leg for the whole curve. Again, all things being equal, that could matter.
If you’re asking me where I stand, I’d have to argue that it’s only a matter of time before it becomes evident that Dos Santos is the baddest bad ass in this trio of bad-ass hurdlers. He’s the youngest of the three, so even though Warholm and Benjamin are still young too, Dos Santos has the most upside of the three. And as they say in basketball, you can’t coach height. You can’t coach 6-7. The run-in off the last hurdle is 40 meters. If Dos Santos is close, that gigantic stride of his gives him an edge over the other two.
Regardless of how things shake out in Paris this summer (assuming all three men get there healthily), let’s appreciate this golden age we’re witnessing in the men’s 400 hurdles while it lasts. All three of these hurdlers are absolutely incredible.
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