A Look Back (at Nationals), A Look Ahead (to Worlds)
by Steve McGill
On the national and international scenes, things are really starting to heat up, and I’m not just talking about the weather. With countries around the world having completed their national championships, and with several more Diamond League meets having been contested since then, times have been dropping, the number of legit competitors has increased, and the prospects for a very fiery World Championships in London this August are looking very good.
In this article I will take a look back at US Nationals and identify the hurdlers that I feel will have the best chances of medaling in London.
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Men’s 110 Meter High Hurdles
In this event, the three Americans who qualified for the US team were Aleec Harris, Aries Merritt, and Devon Allen. Harris’ time of 13.24 was quite respectable when considering the final was run into a -1.7 headwind. Looking ahead to Worlds, however, it would seem like Merritt is the American with the best chance of earning a medal. His 13.09 in London on July 9 makes him the fourth-fastest 110 hurdler in the world this year. Also, it is quite evident that Merritt is just now starting to really round into form after coming back from a kidney transplant after last year’s season ended. So whie that 13.09 might be his season’s best up to this point, it would well be a sign of better things to come.
Will Merritt be able to return to the glory he once knew in his remarkable 2012 campaign? Maybe, maybe not. But he does look primed to dip under 13.00 again, and with the way things are looking on the world scene, sub-13 might be necessary to finish in the top three at Worlds.
The world’s leading 110 hurdler, without a doubt, is Jamaica’s Omar McLeod, who has run under 13 twice this year (12.90 and 12.96) and has also run 13.01. He has run five of the 10 fastest times in the world this year, making him the clear favorite. McLeod is not unbeatable, however, as his height puts him in danger of hitting hurdles, and his speed puts him in danger of running up on hurdles.
McLeod’s main competition could come from fellow Jamaican Ronald Levy, who has been having a break-out season, including a victory in Paris on July 1st in 13.05. Levy is a big, strong hurdler with good mechanics. I would not be surprised at all to see him run under 13 before the season is over.
Sergey Shubenkov of Russia is back looking strong this year. In Hungary on July 4th, he finished right behind McLeod in a hotly contested battle, 12.96 to 13.01. After being banned along with the whole Russian team last year for the Olympic Games in Rio, Shubenkov is looking like he’s ready to make a big splash at Worlds.
Other hurdlers who have a very good chance of making the finals and perhaps medaling at Worlds include Orlando Ortega of Spain who boasts a season’s best of 13.15, Andrew Pozzi of England who ran 13.14 at the Paris meet, Hansle Parchment of Jamaica who ran a 13.19 at their national championships, and Garfield Darien of France, who ran 13.15 at the Paris meet. Meanwhile, Balazs Baji of Hungary set a national record of 13.15 in the same race in which McLeod ran 12.96, in Hungary. So he can’t be slept on either.
Merritt is looking like a legit threat once again, but McLeod is still the man to beat in the 110’s.
My predictions for London are as follows:
Gold: McLeod
Silver: Ortega
Bronze: Shubenkov
Women’s 100 Meter Hurdles
Thus far this year, it has been the Keni Harrison show in this event. Coming off a 2016 in which she broke the American record and then the world record, she has threatened the world record again, having run 12.28 in Hungary – the third sub-12.30 of her career. At USA’s Harrison, without Briana Rollins in the picture (who is serving a one-year suspension for not making herself available to drug testers), Harrison pretty much dominated through the rounds and in the final. The time (12.60) was relatively pedestrian, but the final was run into a -1.7 headwind. The business-like manner in which Harrison handled the rounds and the final indicates that she has overcome the jitters that affected her at last year’s national championships.
Meanwhile, because Harrison had already earned a bye to Worlds due to her Diamond League championship last year, three more Americans will be joining her in London – Nia Ali, Christina Manning, and Dawn Harper. As has always been the case recently in the women’s 100m hurdles, some very good hurdlers did not make the team. In this case, the names that stand out the most, besides Rollins, are Jasmine Stowers Sherika Nelvis, and Kristi Castlin (last year’s Olympic bronze medalist). In this event, you can’t afford to have a bad day.
Looking outside of the US to see who can challenge the Americans for spots on the medal stand, Australia’s Sally Pearson – the 2012 Olympic champion. Coming off major injury after breaking her am in a fall two years ago, Pearson has struggled to regain the magic that made her the greatest hurdler in the world, but it seems like she is finally getting there. She has been the only hurdler to truly challenge Harrison, as she finished second to her in London last week, 12.39 to12.48. Pearson was side-by-side with Harrison for a good five hurdles before Harrison opened up a lead that she maintained to the finish line. It was only one race, but it was indicative of what Pearson is capable of.
Other possible threats include Jamaica’s Danielle Williams, who ran a 12.56 at her national championships and who has had plenty of big-meet success; then there are NCAA champion and runner-up Oluwatobiloba Amusan of Nigeria and Jasmine Camacho-Quinn of Puerto Rico, who are both sub-12.60 performers. Other than those four, no other non-American woman has run under 12.60 this year.
Harrison is the favorite for gold in London.
My predictions for London are as follows:
Gold: Harrison
Silver: Pearson
Bronze: Ali
Men’s 400 Meter Intermediate Hurdles
This event continues to be one that’s hard to figure out, as it has been ever since Edwin Moses retired. (Okay, that’s a slight exaggeration). At the US Championships, Kerron Clement, coming off a gold medal performance in Rio last year, had the fastest time in the semis, but then looked sluggish in the final, finishing seventh. Other perennial studs fell off as well, as Michael Tinsley failed to qualify for the final, although he had the 8th-fastest time in the semis. The legendary Bershawn Jackson, who qualified for the final due to being in a slower heat than Tinsley, finished last in the final, declaring afterwards in an emotional interview that it would be his last US Championships. Then my man Johnny Dutch, who I coached back in his high school days, suffered heartbreak once again, finishing fifth in the final although he came off the last curve looking like he had a spot wrapped up.
To make a strange situation even stranger, the American with the two fastest times thus far – Clement and Quincy Downing – did not make the team. But with all that being said, the US will be sending a strong contingent of 400 hurdlers to London. Eddie Futch of Florida looked very strong on the homestretch as he seized control of the race and claimed victory in an impressive 48.18. Also making the team were Michael Stigler and TJ Holmes (also of Florida; what is Coach Holloway doing down there?).
This event has been so wildly unpredictable this year and in recent history that an American sweep isn’t totally out of the question, although it isn’t likely. The best 400m hurdler in the world this year has been Kyron McMaster of the British Virgin Islands. At 47.80, he is the only hurdler to have gone under 48-flat this year. (Why is it so rare to see someone go sub-48 these days?). In a great battle against Clement in London last week, he finished second, 48.02 to 48.12. This young fella has a bright future ahead of him. Based on time alone, he is looking like the favorite for gold in London.
Yasmani Copello of Turkey finished third in that London race in 48.24. Other sub-48.50 hurdlers this year include Abderrahaman Samba of Qatar, Rai Benjamin of Antigua, Karsten Warholm of Norway, Mamadou Kasse Hann of France, and Kemar Mowatt of Jamaica. Jaheel Hyde, another young sensation, from Jamaica, has run 48.52. It’s a pretty wide open event, with very few usual suspects from past years looking like they’re going to be making much noise.
McMaster – the man in the middle – is the only hurdler to go under 48 this year.
Here are my predictions:
Gold: McMaster
Silver: Futch
Bronze: Stigler
Women’s 400 Meter Hurdles
Speaking of an unpredictable event. But in this case it’s not because people are falling off, but because people are coming up. The finals at the US Championships was a race for the ages, yet the Americans will face plenty of stiff competition in London next month. At Nationals, both Dalilah Muhammad and Shamier Little broke the previous meet record of 52.88 set by Muhammad last year. Muhammad earned the victory in 52.64, while Little finished second in 52.75. Third place finisher Kori Carter also finished under 53.00, in 52.95, making this the first race ever in which the top three finishers ran under 53. My goodness. Ashley Spencer and Georgeanne Moline ran 53.11 and 53.14, respectively, making them the two fastest Americans ever to not make a World Championship or Olympic team. High school sensation Sydney McLaughlin did more damage to the prep record books with her 53.82 for sixth. Insane.
The top five times at the US Championships are the top five times in the world this year. But let’s not sleep on the Jamaicans. Janieve Russell has run 54.02 and 54.14 in Europe this summer, and Rhonda Whyte won the Jamaican National Championships in 54.29.
There are plenty of good 400 hurdlers in Europe as well. Lea Sprunger of Sweden, Sara Slott Petersen of Denmark, and Elidh Doyle of England have all run under 54.50 this year. And Zuzana Hejnova of the Czech Republic, who has run 54.50, is always a big-meet threat.
The Americans have definitely set themselves apart with their astounding final at Nationals. But sweeps are so rare and so hard to come by that I’m not about to predict one.
An elated Muhammad crosses the line in first place at the US National Championships.
Here are my predictions for this event:
Gold: Muhammad
Silver: Little
Bronze: Russell
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