World Championships Preview

Even though the World Championships in Beijing are still over a month away, I want to go ahead and make my predictions now, since all the national championship meets are over and many top athletes will be taking off some of the diamond league meets in order to prepare for the big show at the end of August. Of course, my focus will be on the hurdling events, because that’s all we care about here, right?

Not quite right. The question of whether Usain Bolt will return to form is an engaging story line, as is the possibility of Allyson Felix’s double, Justin Gatlin’s return to the top of the sprint world, the many potential gold medalists in the men’s 400, etc. But okay, in the interest of time, if nothing else, let’s take a look at the hurdles and see what the crystal ball has to say.

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Men’s 110m Hurdles

The US entrants in this event include last year’s world champion David Oliver, Ronnie Ash, Aries Merritt, and Aleec Harris. Of the four, Oliver has looked the sharpest not only at the US Championships, but all season long. His season’s best thus far is 12.98, which he ran in finishing second to Orlando Ortega of Cuba, who ran a world-leading 12.94. Meanwhile, Omar Mcleod of Jamaica ran 12.97 at his national championship meet. Those three are the only ones who have broken 13.00 thus far this year. But last year’s dominant hurdler, Pascal Martinot-Lagarde of France came up with a big win at the Prefontaine Classic in late May, finishing in 13.06. He recently lost in his national championship race to Garfield Darien, and overall hasn’t been as consistent as he was in 2014. Others who have been looking good include Sergey Shubenkov of Russia with a season’s best of 13.06, and Hansle Parchment of Jamaica, with a season’s best of 13.08.

While there’s always the possibility that Merritt will reclaim his 2012 form, he’s not looking like a medal threat right now. Harris is fearless but still raw. Ash is big and strong but inconsistent. I would say the three favorites right now to medal would be Oliver, Ortega, and Martinot-Lagarde. Oliver and Martinot-Lagarde because of their experience and ability to come up big in big races, and Ortega because his technique is very efficient (which is key in a meet with multiple rounds) and because I feel like he’s still on the rise. The next tier of contenders would include Mcleod, Parchment, and Shubenkov.

Here are my medal predictions:

Gold:                 Pascal Martinot-Lagarde

Silver:               David Oliver

Bronze:            Orlando Ortega

 

Women’s 100m Hurdles

The US entrants in this event are Big-Meet-Queen Dawn Harper-Nelson, Kendra Harrison, and Sharika Nelvis. The US is leaving several medal contenders home, including Queen Harrison, Jasmine Stowers, Brianna Rollins, Kristi Castlin, and Lolo Jones. Stowers has the second-fastest time in the world this year (12.35), but she didn’t make the US team. With Sally Pearson out of the Worlds with a broken arm, the Americans should dominate, and could potentially sweep.

Their stiffest competition should come from Tiffany Porter of Great Britain, whose season’s best of 12.56 puts her firmly in medal contention. Other than her and Pearson, the fastest time by a non-American thus far this year is 12.70 by Alina Talay of Belarus. Not bad, but the slowest season’s best of the three Americans is Harrison’s 12.50, and Nelvis owns the fastest time in the world thus far with her 12.34 in the rounds at USA’s. So yeah, I’m expecting the Americans to do some big things in this event in Beijing.

I like Nelvis to learn from her mistake of running blazing times in the rounds at USA’s, and to save her best for the final this time. I remember back in 1995 how old man Roger Kingdom defeated Allen Johnson at USA’s, but Johnson went on to win the World Championship. I think something similar will happen here (but I could be wrong). Here are my medal predictions:

Gold:                Sharika Nelvis

Silver:              Dawn Harper-Nelson

Bronze:            Kendra Harrison

 

Men’s 400m Hurdles

The US entrants in this event include US champ Bershawn Jackson, Johnny Dutch, Kerron Clement, and Michael Tinsley (who gets in on a bye as the 2013 winner). There’s definitely an old-school feel to this event, as all of the Americans have been around for a long time. No young upstarts in this event. Jackson and Dutch, who are training together this year, own the top five fastest time in the event this year. Jackson’s 48.09 in Doha in May leads the way, but Dutch’s 48.13 in Rome in early June isn’t far behind. The two have had some thrilling battles, not the least of which occurred at USA’s where Jackson passed Dutch off the last hurdle for the victory. Clement, meanwhile, who seemingly rose from the dead, almost edged out Dutch for 2^nd at USA’s in a very respectable 48.44. Tinsley hasn’t run often, but his 48.34 in Rome indicates that he’ll be ready when the World Championships roll around.

The Americans’ competition should come primarily from Puerto Rico’s Javier Culson, who won the New York Diamond League race in 48.48. Jehue Gordon has been MIA this year (season’s best 49.22), so I don’t know what’s up with him. Either he’s fallen off the map or he’s waiting to make a big boom at Worlds. Roxroy Cato of Jamaica (who also trains with Jackson and Dutch) has a season’s best of 48.97, and could make some noise.

Other sub-49 hurdlers with medal potential at Worlds include Thomas Barr of Ireland (48.65), Denis Kudryavtsev (48.66) of Russia, Kariem Hussein (48.76) of Switzerland, L.J. Van Zyl (48.78), Patryk Dobek (48.84) of Poland, Jeffery Gibson (48.89) of Jamaica, Annsert Whyte (48.90) also of Jamaica, and Abdelmalik Lahoulou (48.99) of Algeria. Of that group, the experienced Van Zyl would be the one I’d be most leery of if I were one of the Americans.

Like the women’s 100m hurdles, this is an event the Americans should dominate. Jackson and Dutch are both benefitting greatly from training with each other, Clement is an old warrior who will be ready for the big stage, and the same goes for Tinsley. Of the four Americans, three should make it to the medal stand. Jackson and Dutch have been 1-2 all year, though not always in the same order, and I think that will continue. And I’d like to see someone break 48. It’s been a while. Here are my predictions:

Gold:                 Bershawn Jackson

Silver:               Johnny Dutch

Bronze:            Michael Tinsley

 

Women’s 400m Hurdles

The US entrants in this event include NCAA and US champion Shamier Little, Cassandra Tate, and Kori Carter. Little, only 20 years old, owns the fastest time in the world thus far this year at 53.74, and her closing speed is downright intimidating. Tate has looked very strong this year, and definitely has medal potential in Beijing. Carter’s 54.41 at USA’s, however, makes her only the 11^th-fastest in the world thus far this year.

Unlike in some of the other hurdling events, the Americans should face stiff competition here worldwide. The biggest threat for a gold is Zuzana Hejnova of the Czech Republic, who dropped a 53.76 in Paris on July 4^th. In that same race, Sara Slott Petersen of Denmark ran 53.99 for second, and Adekoya Oluwakemi of Bahrain ran 54.12 for third. And I haven’t even mentioned Kaliese Spencer of Jamaica yet, who has a season’s best of 54.15 and is always a threat to medal. In addition, Wenda Nel of Russia has run 54.37 this year, and Eilidh Child of Great Britain has run 54.46.

While the Americans should be highly competitive in this event, Hejnova and Spencer have the type of ability and experience that should put them on the medal stand. Of the Americans, I like Little the best, despite her inexperience, because she showed no signs of inexperience in her victory at USA’s, and because she is so strong coming off the last hurdle.

Here are my medal predictions:

Gold:                Kaliese Spencer

Silver:               Shamier Little

Bronze:            Zuzana Hejnova

It should be an exciting meet. And if you’re anything like me, you’ll mess up your sleep patterns trying to catch races at odd hours of the day.

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