Olympic Trials Preview

Every fourth year, the US National Championships takes on the added significance of serving as the Olympic Trials. The top three finishers in each event will go on to the Olympic Games, regardless of who has been having the best season up to that point. If you don’t do your thing at the Trials, you don’t go on to the Games. That’s why you constantly hear, in Olympic years such as this one, athletes commenting that early season races “don’t really matter,” even if they are Diamond League meets. The pressure of the Trials, especially in events as unpredictable as the 100/110 meter and 400 meter hurdles, makes for exciting theater. Will the favorites pull through as expected? Or will an underdog  emerge from the shadows to claim a spot on the team?

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As this issue of The Hurdle Magazine will be the last one prior to the US Trials, let’s go ahead and take a look at the favorites to make the 2016 US team in each of the four hurdling events.

Men’s 110 Meter Hurdles

The Americans haven’t been at the top of the heap this year as in previous years, as Jamaican Omar McLeod has become the big name in the event. Still, the US should be sending a formidable team to Rio. As has most often been the case over the past eight years, veteran David Oliver is looking like a favorite to make the team. At the time of this writing, he is the fastest hurdler in the nation right now, with his 13.09 that he ran in Kingston, Jamaica a few days ago. That was his first sub-13.10 of the season, and seems to indicate that D.O. is moving toward peaking in time for the Trials, and that there should be every reason to expect that he will prove capable to run sub-13.00 in Oregon. With so much experience when it comes to competing through multiple rounds and enduring a long season, I really like Oliver’s chances of moving on to Rio.

After Oliver, there are no clear-cut favorites to make the team. Ronnie Ash has run 13.18, Aries Merritt has run 13.24, and Jarret Eaton has run 13.25. And you can’t forget Jason Richardson, who has run 13.33. Then there’s NCAA champ Devon Allen, who sports a season’s best of 13.32 (into a -0.8 headwind). Other than that, no other American has run sub-13.40 at this point. Names like Spencer Adams and Aleec Harris command respect, but neither of them has done anything eye-opening yet this year.

With everyone except Oliver, there are question marks. Merritt is returning from a kidney transplant, and we’ve to see again the Merritt we saw back in his glory year of 2012. Meanwhile, 2011 World Champion Richardson has also struggled to regain the form he had back then, and 13.33 certainly isn’t scaring anyone. Allen is a big-time competitor who comes through in big races, but he too is coming off a major injury, and may or may not have enough in him to make the top three. Ash is a beast of an athlete, but is also very inconsistent. You never know what to expect from him. Eaton is trending upward, so to speak, but has yet to prove himself as a true contender on this stage at the 110 distance.

I’m predicting that Oliver, Merritt, and Eaton will make the team, finishing in the following order:

1. Oliver
2. Eaton
3. Merritt

I feel like Oliver is primed and ready and he knows how to handle his business. I was very impressed by Eaton’s race in Ostrava last month, and I feel that he is the best hurdler in the nation other than Oliver at this point. For the third spot, I’m picking Merritt over Ash and Allen just because I simply don’t see Merritt allowing himself to finish out of the top three. He’ll find a way to make that team.

Women’s 100 Meter Hurdles

It doesn’t take a genius to figure out who’s the favorite here, as Kendra Harrison is having a season for the ages, having opened with a 12.36 and then breaking the American record at the Prefontaine meet earlier this month with a 12.24. Still, with that being said, there are no rounds in early season meets, and there isn’t the pressure of making a team in any of those meets either, so even Harrison isn’t a lock.

And let’s not forget, the women’s 100 meter hurdles is super-competitive world-wide, and particularly in this country. Other American’s who have run fast times this year include Brianna Rollins (12.53), Jasmine Stowers (12.55), Sharika Nelvis (12.61), and Kristi Castlin (12.62). Among the next tier there are Nia Ali (12.72), Queen Harrison (12.72), and Dawn Harper-Nelson (12.75). All of the above have had glorious seasons in the past, all of them know what it takes to compete at a high level and to make a national team, so none of them can be counted out.

Because Kendra Harrison is undefeated and owns the four fastest times in the world this year, I have to go with her to make the team. As for the other two spots, Rollins has been very consistent and hasn’t lost to anyone except Harrison. So I like her to make the team. From there, it gets iffy. Stowers and Nelvis both ran sub-12.40 last year. Harper-Nelson has that old-school pedigree that you have to respect. Castlin is right there in the thick of things. Ultimately, you have to look at the way things are shaping up currently, and can’t put but so much stock in what happened in past years. With that thought in mind, I like Kendra Harrison, Rollins, and Stowers to make the team in the following order:

1. Harrison
2. Rollins
3. Stowers

I would not be surprised at all to see Nelvis make it over Stowers, but I feel like Harrison and Rollins are locks, barring injury or a false start or a crash.

Men’s 400 Meter Hurdles

Funny thing about this event is that the names don’t change much as the years go by. The usual suspects in past years are the usual suspects again this year. Johnny Dutch, Michael Tinsley, Jeshua Anderson, and Kerron Clement have all run sub-49 this year, as did NCAA champion Eric Futch. And Bershawn Jackson has gone 49.04, so you know he’ll be ready.

Of the group, Dutch is looking the strongest, even though he hasn’t looked sharp in all his races. Nevertheless, he owns the two fastest times in the world this year, including the world-leading 48.10 he ran in Jamaica last weekend. In that race, he finished very strongly coming off the last hurdle, which had been a weakness in his race in the past. In a text message exchange a day later, he explained to me that he’s been doing a lot of 800’s and 1000’s in training this year, so hopefully his late-race breakdowns are behind him.

How long have we been talking about Clement and Jackson? Those guys are as old as I am, aren’t they? But here we are in 2016, and both are still major contenders to qualify for another Olympic Games. Anderson, meanwhile, has been a bit of a disappointment based on his potential coming out of college, but he has to be a favorite to make the team right now.  Tinsley is Tinsley, and his hatred for losing is palpable, so you gotta figure he’s going to do everything within his power to travel to Rio.

For my picks, I’m going with the following hurdlers in the following order:

1. Dutch
2. Tinsley
3. Clement

Batman’s injury history and his relatively uneventful season thus far makes me shy away from believing he’ll rise from out of the depths to make the team, but again, I’m not counting him out. Meanwhile, Dutch’s 48.10 sets him apart from the rest, as it is a full six tenths faster than any other American thus far. I like Tinsley for his competitiveness and his history of coming up big in big races of late. For the third spot, it comes down to Clement and Anderson in my eyes. I’m giving the edge to Clement because he’s been there done that, and Anderson has yet to distinguish himself at this level.

Women’s 400 Meter Hurdles

Now this should be interesting, as the US has a contingent of long hurdlers who have the potential to medal at the Games. This has been one of the strongest years in American in this event for quite some time, led by a group of hurdlers who have been on the rise for a few years. At the top of the list is two-time NCAA champion Shamier Little, whose world-leading 53.51 at NCAA’s last weekend put her in the position, arguably of gold medal favorite. Little is such a strong runner that she has the potential to take the event to heights previously unknown if she continues to progress as she has been.

The only other sub-54.00 from an American thus far this year belongs to Georganne Moline (53.97). Not far behind her are Dalilah Muhammad (54.37), Ashley Spencer (54.51), and Cassandra Tate (54.57). Kia Seymour’s 54.67 as runner-up at NCAA’s makes her a contender to make the team as well.

To me, the only shoe-in to make the team, barring injury or freak occurrence, is Little. None of the other Americans can match her power coming down the homestretch. Moline is the best of the race, but she has been known to hit hurdles or stutter at hurdles in big races. For that reason, she’s not a shoe-in, but if she runs her race in the final, she should be in the top three. Spencer, Tate, and Muhammad are all quite capable as well; it’s gonna come down to who executes the best on that particular day.

Here’s  my prediction for this event:

1. Little
2. Tate
3. Moline

Again, Little has separated herself from the others, so I see her as the clear-cut favorite. I like Tate to because she’s peaking at the right time and I think she has what it takes to put a little doubt in Little’s heart. No disrespect intended to Muhammad or Spencer, as I feel that all five of these women have medal potential in Rio, depending on who gets there.

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